One with many papers, a decent R&R, and with two good letters and a third one which is mediocre.
A second candidate with one paper after six years in grad school, but with letters that say talents of his kind only come around once every 2-3 years. You see problems including typos on every page in the second candidates JMP, while candidate #1's paper looks like it was sent to a professional editing service.
I know which one the market values in this case. Which do you choose and why?
I bet we could do a study on which type goes on to publish more papers, and it isn't the one the market goes after...